Prognostic nomogram for inpatients with asthma exacerbation

Wakae Hasegawa, Yasuhiro Yamauchi, Hideo Yasunaga, Hideyuki Takeshima, Yukiyo Sakamoto, Taisuke Jo, Yusuke Sasabuchi, Hiroki Matsui, Kiyohide Fushimi and Takahide Nagase

Background

Asthma exacerbation may require a visit to the emergency room as well as hospitalization and can occasionally be fatal. However, there is limited information about the prognostic factors for asthma exacerbation requiring hospitalization, and no methods are available to predict an inpatient’s prognosis. We investigated the clinical features and factors affecting in-hospital mortality of patients with asthma exacerbation and generated a nomogram to predict in-hospital death using a national inpatient database in Japan.

Methods

We retrospectively collected data concerning hospitalization of adult patients with asthma exacerbation between July 2010 and March 2013 using the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. We recorded patient characteristics and performed Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to assess the factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality. Then, we constructed a nomogram to predict in-hospital death.

Results

A total of 19,684 patients with asthma exacerbation were identified; their mean age was 58.8 years (standard deviation, 19.7 years) and median length of hospital stay was 8 days (interquartile range, 5–12 days). Among study patients, 118 died in the hospital (0.6%). Factors associated with higher in-hospital mortality included older age, male sex, reduced level of consciousness, pneumonia, and heart failure. A nomogram was generated to predict the in-hospital death based on the existence of seven variables at admission. The nomogram allowed us to estimate the probability of in-hospital death, and the calibration plot based on these results was well fitted to predict the in-hospital prognosis.

Conclusion

Our nomogram allows physicians to predict individual risk of in-hospital death in patients with asthma exacerbation.

Download PDF

 

(You must be logged in to add and reply comments)

Interasma on Twitter

Interasma Top story: Sarah B D on Twitter: "@picardonhealth I got the flu shot because I’… https://t.co/PKYRRO1cxM, see more https://t.co/CpGiFuOOYd
1hreplyretweetfavorite
Interasma Top story: Rae Brager on Twitter: "@DrAnneEllis Also decrease REM sleep and the… https://t.co/fy2uqXrC3v, see more https://t.co/CpGiFuOOYd
3hreplyretweetfavorite
Interasma Top story: Dr. Ellis on Twitter: "Rupatadine also low/moderate potential for in… https://t.co/RZVJTybrxF, see more https://t.co/CpGiFuOOYd
11hreplyretweetfavorite
Interasma Top story: Dr. Winder Gill on Twitter: "I'd like to do a poll of how many medic… https://t.co/DCyPZUyIAr, see more https://t.co/CpGiFuOOYd
13hreplyretweetfavorite
Interasma Top story: Salt raises blood pressure, but our gut bacteria can stop it https://t.co/4l5nkVGpC6, see more https://t.co/CpGiFuOOYd
15hreplyretweetfavorite

Editor: Juan C. Ivancevich, MD

Copyright © Interasma 2003-2017  •  Terms of Use  •  Privacy Policy  •  Contact Us  •  Sitemap

Powered by FREI SA

InterAsma